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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-04🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 4f889ae5

Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Hits

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs

-176risk0.17u→win0.1u
WIN

Stake

0.17u

Odds

-176

Closing

-170

CLV

-1.26%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 88.0% over last 15 games vs 63.8% implied → +24.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: bf2ae8)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +24.2pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #24 vs this prop (-10.0% vs league avg over 218 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Wrigley Field: 10 mph wind blowing OUT (SSW): ball carries, HR-friendly; precip risk: partly cloudy then slight chance showers and thunderstorms.

Line movement

-176-170+0.02 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-176
1.5682
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
-1.26%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1737
UUIDfb88911e-1048-4119-b61c-9e4b81480e98
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-04 20:37 UTC
Graded2026-08-05 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash4f889ae5b30da850d277aa557b251e86f927d03ee48a6214d3a1cb199cf6907b
Closing line-170 captured 2026-08-04 22:49 UTC
CLV delta-1.26%
Closing hash8398727d537eae0155dc38b856fa2db83ab107383398974db7201a82f7c92d2e

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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