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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-26🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 435f5e67

Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 Total Bases

Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

-165risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-165

Closing

-190

CLV

+5.22%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +17.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +17.7pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #1 vs this prop (+24.8% vs league avg over 293 games)
  • Opposing starter Kyle Freeland blowing up: 6.5 ERA over last 3 starts at 3.2 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.

Line movement

-165-190-0.08 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-190
1.5263
Delta
+5.22%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1051
UUIDfbcb7a91-9a27-45ff-93a4-90c32654c957
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-26 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-27 05:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash435f5e67b93d56176eb4b4527aff1cc9f01e154c3fe5db20006edbc9f7070517
Closing line-190 captured 2026-05-27 00:41 UTC
CLV delta+5.22%
Closing hashd57cb5033ebf862db71326b939272649ae9f638104ecfee634dd7f0c878e86b8

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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