Jorge Soler Over 0.5 Total Bases
Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers
-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 81.7% over last 6 games vs 62.3% implied → +7.8pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 6 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +7.8pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #10 vs this prop (+3.1% vs league avg over 288 games)
- 81.7% over last 6 games
Line movement
-165-160+0.02 decRelated Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-160
1.6250
Delta
-1.17%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1044
UUID941b2e29-3bd9-41af-b9bb-9422c44bb22c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-26 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-27 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash561e27089065e62345143dd14d6dfda3ceda50788da56e0c169cf7a7c2717541
Closing line-160 captured 2026-05-26 21:11 UTC
CLV delta-1.17%
Closing hash548cab0bf7f723ebc9619266d3b6ec6c375b272129b1ee846ce0978487b19ff6
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public14 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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