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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-26🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED fd8cdd83

Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 Total Bases

Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays

-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-165

Closing

-160

CLV

-1.17%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 84.2% over last 6 games vs 62.3% implied → +8.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 6 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +8.8pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #12 vs this prop (+0.7% vs league avg over 295 games)
  • 84.2% over last 6 games

Line movement

-165-160+0.02 dec
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-160
1.6250
Delta
-1.17%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1046
UUID478c73f1-9c6c-4592-bcbf-4db811fd2b92
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-26 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-27 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashfd8cdd83ec7e3263f91eeb9804a63b129adfdad06e9e33055f4896dac2de5d73
Closing line-160 captured 2026-05-26 21:39 UTC
CLV delta-1.17%
Closing hashd3e9b223aa7aaee95036e7f60e84699992c86a39528f98f2dee4b977532b119c

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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