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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-26🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 4c201a74

Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 Hits

Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles

-164risk0.12u→win0.07u
LOSS

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-164

Closing

-162

CLV

-0.47%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 79.6% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +17.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +17.5pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #2 vs this prop (+16.5% vs league avg over 263 games)
  • 79.6% over last 15 games

Line movement

-164-162+0.01 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-162
1.6173
Delta
-0.47%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1043
UUID9fa9970a-91b8-4ff0-8eea-5a869cc90ccb
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-26 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-27 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash4c201a7468440f13e1e354869d967ed96627cabee0de5955cf4fba897e8741d7
Closing line-162 captured 2026-05-26 21:07 UTC
CLV delta-0.47%
Closing hash140be2d2255cc7a6e8a46d691a599107cdf1964f770bb174f6fa0e60ae2a2095

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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