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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-03🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 6ee1b6e7

Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Hits

LA Dodgers @ CHI Cubs

-199risk0.16u→win0.08u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-199

Closing

-206

CLV

+1.15%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 88.0% over last 15 games vs 66.6% implied → +21.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Los Angeles Dodgers5
Chicago Cubs10
Winner: Chicago Cubs · 2026-08-03
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-199
1.5025
Closing
-206
1.4854
Delta
+1.15%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1728
UUIDfc125f6c-9faf-4869-8506-2ed7bdf006bd
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-03 20:43 UTC
Graded2026-08-04 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash6ee1b6e7ce138da135e4136260e0cb482c926b9a21dca0bf0996055efcda07c3
Closing line-206 captured 2026-08-03 22:45 UTC
CLV delta+1.15%
Closing hash4bb069fed10273318dab57a9ef829cf481b8ad011f2885ee76d8c2fcf8a479be

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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