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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-21🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 30c002fa

Heliot Ramos Under 1.5 Total Bases

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

-170risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-170

Closing

-170

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 95.2% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +21.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: 1c3775)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Toronto Blue Jays1
New York Yankees3
Winner: New York Yankees · 2026-08-21
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1815
UUIDfe2094d1-4177-423f-89a6-f4424faf3b2e
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-21 18:13 UTC
Graded2026-08-22 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash30c002fa910a65a5165b79dc92481d51c7e5bc7e8c4e038e5f739871e4891328
Closing line-170 captured 2026-08-21 21:35 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashf6758f3d19dbafac45de0853b3aaaa1ce5ce634559f3a52c734d5fb0df7a5f6f

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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