Natasha Mack Over 8.5 Points
Los Angeles Sparks @ Phoenix Mercury
Edge
Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +11.1pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +11.1pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #7 vs this prop (+0.8% vs league avg over 107 games)
- 73.3% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1153
UUID013d999d-9a86-4964-b40d-3631a4204e6d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-13 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-06-14 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashfc2b6e8f7640b94016ebb5c91095c726b2917f1aa8262fa655f8a72cbd0fbed9
Share this receipt
Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).
NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801