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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-11🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED f8061ae4

A'ja Wilson Over 8.5 Rebounds

Washington Mystics @ Las Vegas Aces

-173risk0.11u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-173

Closing

-162

CLV

-2.43%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 63.4% implied → +16.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +16.6pt EV vs implied
  • 80.0% over last 15 games
  • Bayesian-shrunk to 80.0%

Line movement

-173-162+0.04 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-173
1.5780
Closing
-162
1.6173
Delta
-2.43%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1760
UUID07fecc21-9f5a-4841-beb6-4dcf393c719b
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-11 20:42 UTC
Graded2026-08-12 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashf8061ae4bc98b442c7574b7ceccfbc2472496a04eab54d23db7198b1a6cec840
Closing line-162 captured 2026-08-12 00:36 UTC
CLV delta-2.43%
Closing hash3522eda6309eabe9ba9de638365c431ee39ccc15b8a44db5786fb001c4834a07

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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