Nick Suzuki Over 0.5 Points
Montréal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres
-245risk0.1u→win0.04u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 76.9% over last 13 games vs 71.0% implied → +5.1pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
NHL player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel) (ref: 14d702)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 13 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +5.1pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #29 vs this prop (-38.0% vs league avg over 198 games)
- 76.9% over last 13 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#514
UUID08e981c6-bf26-4d9d-951d-091a3328416f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-07 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-05-09 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash19e0d98d437fc8792a74cd7a8fae3e45cff04abdc509cd388fdf4814531411ab
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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