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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-21🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED e22de806

Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 Hits

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

-171risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-171

Closing

-180

CLV

+1.88%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 74.8% over last 15 games vs 63.1% implied → +11.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 046ac8)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +11.7pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #27 vs this prop (-13.1% vs league avg over 296 games)
  • 74.8% over last 15 games

Line movement

-171-180-0.03 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-171
1.5848
Closing
-180
1.5556
Delta
+1.88%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1003
UUID0b741432-b955-49d3-8334-cbbcfebd5440
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-21 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-05-22 05:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe22de806a188e4c3fd3cc02e42f6e0155067a6e84659c4eb1d33898e22e93979
Closing line-180 captured 2026-05-21 21:36 UTC
CLV delta+1.88%
Closing hashabe3a6575d5bc5dc357ba509462256e4c6d8ea45647a9fc7abb04c8e41490120

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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