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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-21🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 4d1faf44

Nick Kurtz Over 0.5 Total Bases

Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels

-165risk0.11u→win0.07u
WIN

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-165

Closing

-149

CLV

-3.89%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 78.4% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +16.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +16.1pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #5 vs this prop (+6.8% vs league avg over 286 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Angel Stadium: 10 mph wind blowing OUT (S): ball carries, HR-friendly.

Line movement

-165-149+0.07 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-149
1.6711
Delta
-3.89%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1004
UUIDe6a97ac2-1ba7-4ce9-bcd2-d75f7a37eb2a
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-21 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-05-22 07:45 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash4d1faf447df35c145dfe0e66decb871c7b8a9d4f2ae5532c30910f650101f4a7
Closing line-149 captured 2026-05-22 00:09 UTC
CLV delta-3.89%
Closing hashb45efe86ae63ddd92ea634b0670a78c2ad8730f746e6713a640fbcbcc26c8ce3

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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