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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-14🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 48bdb0bb

Freddy Fermin Under 1.5 Total Bases

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

-173risk0.11u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-173

Closing

-185

CLV

+2.43%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 94.9% over last 15 games vs 63.4% implied → +20.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (caesars)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
San Diego Padres8
Colorado Rockies7
Winner: San Diego Padres · 2026-09-14
Model Record (30d)
Picks
21
Settled
21
Hit rate
57.9%
11-8
ROI
-10.96%
-0.29u
CLV avg
+1.69%
n=18
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (21 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-173
1.5780
Closing
-185
1.5405
Delta
+2.43%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#10262
UUID355fd0af-d84d-4270-ae73-b19aa450e322
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-14 20:41 UTC
Graded2026-09-15 04:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash48bdb0bb422e7834c9a53a09dccab52ad5cf8fd1939cd116e382bc4c0b0b5258
Closing line-185 captured 2026-09-14 23:16 UTC
CLV delta+2.43%
Closing hash5162d3731cd81e3a467f588c9c6043da0af8f6a23bbfc721a2b247705adcd424

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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