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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-14🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 88c9e6c2

Christian Walker Over 0.5 Hits

Name: NuroPicks
Availability: InStock
Author: NuroPicks LLC

Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

-179risk0.11u→win0.06u

WIN

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-179

Closing

-176

CLV

-0.61%

Source

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time

Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 64.2% implied → +15.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

⊞Game context

Context signals

+15.8pt EV vs implied
80.0% over last 15 games
9 days off. MLB rust pattern; SP K-rate and batter contact both regress on first game back.

Line movement

-179-176+0.01 dec

◯Model Record (30d)

prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window

Picks

39

Settled

39

Hit rate

68.4%

26-12

ROI

+7.62%

+0.43u

CLV avg

-0.38%

n=38

Last 20 settled · cumulative units

ProvisionalProvisional sample (39 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.

◢Related Picks (15)

Same team (7d)

WSeiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Hits@ -1792026-08-23 WSeiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Hits@ -1792026-08-22 WNatisha Hiedeman Over 14.5 Points@ -1822026-08-03 WRyan Jeffers Over 0.5 Hits@ -1652026-08-02 WCole Young Over 0.5 Hits@ -1892026-07-30 LMookie Betts Under 1.5 Total Bases@ -1902026-07-30 WMookie Betts Under 1.5 Total Bases@ -1652026-07-29 LLuis Castillo Over 3.5 Strikeouts@ -1902026-07-28 WKelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 Points@ -2312026-07-28 WWyatt Langford Over 0.5 Hits@ -2102026-07-26

Same model

LRyan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 Hits@ -1762026-08-23 WSeiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Hits@ -1792026-08-23 LRoyce Lewis Over 0.5 Hits@ -1762026-08-21 WErica Wheeler Over 7.5 Points@ -1632026-08-20 LNatasha Howard Over 9.5 Points@ -1752026-08-19

CLV math

Posted

-179

1.5587

Closing

-176

1.5682

Delta

-0.61%

posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1779

UUID106d2c22-63e3-4d33-8773-e22069f1a0ba

Surfaceprop-slate-daily

Posted2026-08-14 20:13 UTC

Graded2026-08-15 03:15 UTC

ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger

Opening hash88c9e6c23bdd39146f4c92f3727e550055856c0b50c55f6ec99459b22a36e3f4

Closing line-176 captured 2026-08-14 22:45 UTC

CLV delta-0.61%

Closing hashf08904e29f880e57ffa3a44ec8bb413b9c15abed0f9992813a6a93786a82d490

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Why this receipt is trustable

Append-only ledger96.1% hashed
981 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
Graded against close58.3% closed
981 settled picks · 58.3% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
Every pick public0 pending
Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.

Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801