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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-16🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 7161a8e0

Adael Amador Over 0.5 Total Bases

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

-175risk0.11u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-175

Closing

-179

CLV

+0.82%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 94.9% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +20.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
San Diego Padres9
Colorado Rockies3
Winner: San Diego Padres · 2026-09-16
Model Record (30d)
Picks
21
Settled
21
Hit rate
57.9%
11-8
ROI
-10.96%
-0.29u
CLV avg
+1.69%
n=18
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (21 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-179
1.5587
Delta
+0.82%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#10818
UUID2f374e45-c5a5-4ac6-a473-0a03e0bb0199
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-16 20:43 UTC
Graded2026-09-17 04:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash7161a8e0d9b4f452b66aba5783ef33647520bff2423337df02faf3a118ec38ca
Closing line-179 captured 2026-09-17 06:07 UTC
CLV delta+0.82%
Closing hash9833f64b1b9c0f6858058c20f6fdce8dae622005a950a7c852583008f124509b

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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