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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-11🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED eb7ff5c1

Dillon Dingler Under 1.5 Total Bases

Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers

-175risk0.15u→win0.09u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.15u

Odds

-175

Closing

-185

CLV

+2.01%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 98.0% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +25.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Colorado Rockies2
Detroit Tigers6
Winner: Detroit Tigers · 2026-09-11
Model Record (30d)
Picks
21
Settled
21
Hit rate
57.9%
11-8
ROI
-10.96%
-0.29u
CLV avg
+1.69%
n=18
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (21 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-185
1.5405
Delta
+2.01%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#9262
UUID41a47e20-21a4-478a-881d-80064e5d3a77
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-11 20:41 UTC
Graded2026-09-12 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasheb7ff5c1d738f6b0d0f21c8596b06e77a93dbc273ca67f40c48c7005818c2c14
Closing line-185 captured 2026-09-11 21:23 UTC
CLV delta+2.01%
Closing hashecff6e99b75752b4f9d689385afca96996f5f0f1db7bba6e1a502c197d62e42c

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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