Salvador Perez Over 0.5 Total Bases
Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals
Edge
Empirical 81.7% over last 6 games vs 63.0% implied → +7.5pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 6 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Final · Grading detail
Houston Astros10
Kansas City Royals8
Winner: Houston Astros · 2026-06-12
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-190
1.5263
Delta
+4.06%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1144
UUIDeedb1a53-b777-494c-8140-08308369c0e0
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-12 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-13 03:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash62f476d365e7dedac1a96c96377772547d1168172d36c47170abe66726ccd943
Closing line-190 captured 2026-06-12 22:41 UTC
CLV delta+4.06%
Closing hashe10b2c67c239456f4f4073721ce24d6c9cfee59bc096be0c030e8f3d0c77f108
Share this receipt
Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).
NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801