Marina Mabrey Over 16.5 Points
Atlanta Dream @ Toronto Tempo
Edge
Empirical 69.2% over last 13 games vs 62.3% implied → +6.0pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 13 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +6.0pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #1 vs this prop (+21.4% vs league avg over 104 games)
- 69.2% over last 13 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
1
Settled
1
Hit rate
100.0%
1-0
ROI
+56.82%
+0.06u
CLV avg
-1.26%
n=1
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (1 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (15)
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1154
UUID7e292361-c802-4912-9d4d-aa6faf31c19c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-13 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-06-15 01:00 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash49ec6ba82532bee83074cdbf7173d7d52f5735a075bfa31c69483d6f7dfa7e06
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger78.0% hashed1,378 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close65.9% closed1,378 settled picks · 65.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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