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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-17🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 693fcd2b

Nyara Sabally Over 3.5 Rebounds

Atlanta Dream @ TOR Tempo

-250risk0.13u→win0.05uVOIDESPN box score →

Stake

0.13u

Odds

-250

Closing

-242

CLV

-0.94%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 71.4% implied → +15.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +15.2pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #11 vs this prop (-2.3% vs league avg over 95 games)
  • 86.7% over last 15 games

Line movement

-250-242+0.01 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
22
Hit rate
63.6%
14-8
ROI
-0.21%
-0.01u
CLV avg
+0.88%
n=22
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-250
1.4000
Closing
-242
1.4132
Delta
-0.94%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1416
UUID26d862dc-67f1-43ba-998c-6c24a6ea0099
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-17 21:09 UTC
Graded2026-07-18 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash693fcd2b0c61e29de1169c4275b36767af5ce8442aac33c63583bf824ed70243
Closing line-242 captured 2026-07-17 22:17 UTC
CLV delta-0.94%
Closing hashdb31b6d5a754b7fa420476c17cdc96fd5f34a05730a0a9a7e0732211cf28f630

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.9% closed
    1,119 settled picks · 61.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public17 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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