Monique Akoa Makani Over 7.5 Points
Seattle Storm @ Phoenix Mercury
Edge
Empirical 77.8% over last 9 games vs 63.2% implied → +8.7pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 7ce47d)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 9 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +8.7pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #4 vs this prop (+7.3% vs league avg over 107 games)
- 77.8% over last 9 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
16
Settled
16
Hit rate
50.0%
8-8
ROI
-24.70%
-0.58u
CLV avg
+1.72%
n=16
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (16 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1218
UUIDb3dbe515-888d-452a-974b-5b3a99bb1389
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-19 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-21 01:00 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash353358a4c8f314b20e9ef2f7e4591cc7e265ddceea9c28713af489dc0c240399
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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