Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 Total Bases
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Edge
Empirical 99.5% over last 5 games vs 62.3% implied → +12.4pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 5 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Final · Grading detail
Philadelphia Phillies9
Milwaukee Brewers8
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-06-13
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-180
1.5556
Delta
+3.25%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1163
UUID6dad6d17-ae5e-4b1e-8b69-a55b530ef1c0
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-13 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-14 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash799970adb1e4beccf92ed1e03bf0abe42930868311f493ecf9f2a26adc97395f
Closing line-180 captured 2026-06-13 21:41 UTC
CLV delta+3.25%
Closing hash5d8550f5e3c5f5354cec766343634b3619ce0669ba290e0d313229cf8957872a
Share this receipt
Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,253 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.5% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.5% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public10 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).
NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801