Pittsburgh Pirates -1
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 55.9% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Pittsburgh Pirates → away spread.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-spread surface, away-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Pittsburgh Pirates8
Colorado Rockies6
Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates · 2026-06-21
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-125
1.8000
Closing
+100
2.0000
Delta
-10.00%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1268
UUID3bf90e89-1a35-4f17-ab92-0adf5da7984e
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-21 18:41 UTC
Graded2026-06-21 22:05 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:824343:2026-06-21T19:10:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash754aa574f3db068d282b148809ba89de115968bad01139fde93948f174245a7e
Closing line+100 captured 2026-06-21 19:11 UTC
CLV delta-10.00%
Closing hashc1d6876539d070c56a3f6818afa497d24e398b467793c832f4bd981e01ccbb22
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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