Texas Rangers -1
San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 53.3% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Texas Rangers → home spread.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
San Diego Padres3
Texas Rangers4
Winner: Texas Rangers · 2026-06-21
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-114
1.8772
Closing
+134
2.3400
Delta
-19.78%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1266
UUIDf082d8d1-2a7b-4553-9b2a-9ffe0366648b
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-21 18:06 UTC
Graded2026-06-21 21:10 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:822883:2026-06-21T18:35:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashd13f0bb663ba446809e2f380afcb99362c4684d5f9927a48ccdf77777f928049
Closing line+134 captured 2026-06-21 18:37 UTC
CLV delta-19.78%
Closing hash70495835e22a7307f1f4440c65a7ea89133a8cf828b95902354e461c08f23420
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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