Over 10
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies
Edge
Friendly alt over at 63.0% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: vegas total 11.5 ≥ 10 (high-scoring band) → over.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, over-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Pittsburgh Pirates8
Colorado Rockies6
Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates · 2026-06-21
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-107
1.9346
Delta
-17.90%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1269
UUID0156775a-c97b-4ab4-a1e7-54b74fe84009
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-21 18:41 UTC
Graded2026-06-21 22:10 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:824343:2026-06-21T19:10:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasheba6bc3219e1bc8745b62c40041465a76f9736e7daf058d23348d70d1d7616f2
Closing line-107 captured 2026-06-21 19:11 UTC
CLV delta-17.90%
Closing hashda42f55ba31d56d3765f4bc11c94585ace78f6921df5a14a361b602ba4ecaff3
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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