Under 9
San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers
Edge
Friendly alt under at 62.3% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, under rung lower-juice (62.3% vs 63.0%).
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung (ref: 195843)
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
San Diego Padres3
Texas Rangers4
Winner: Texas Rangers · 2026-06-21
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-108
1.9259
Delta
-16.61%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1267
UUID3f8a66eb-fb9d-44ea-a5de-f3cc8cc5a372
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-21 18:06 UTC
Graded2026-06-21 21:15 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:822883:2026-06-21T18:35:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash5512c8de004808a7806821d0ded9f4123398206c5e9433bf142fa8633d5d8014
Closing line-108 captured 2026-06-21 18:37 UTC
CLV delta-16.61%
Closing hash60e15f8d0f1c5f7ce8efb6a32a1d2c1caf29897350fd694f1c37ada5456ed3a8
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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