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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED eb15382c

Trevor Story Over 0.5 Hits

Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox

-176risk0.22u→win0.13u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-176

Closing

-141

CLV

-8.25%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 95.7% over last 15 games vs 63.8% implied → +31.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Cleveland Guardians0
Boston Red Sox1
Winner: Boston Red Sox · 2026-09-23
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
20
Settled
20
Hit rate
55.6%
10-8
ROI
-15.51%
-0.4u
CLV avg
-0.94%
n=17
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (20 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-176
1.5682
Closing
-141
1.7092
Delta
-8.25%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#12759
UUID1e187fbb-c904-4918-96c0-323631440138
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-23 15:13 UTC
Graded2026-09-24 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasheb15382c6d81eb1a22582472314e290bf3a079f369e92b65abda48e72f781b61
Closing line-141 captured 2026-09-23 22:52 UTC
CLV delta-8.25%
Closing hash53ef5dcbbedd708e637e8b50f7acd4566b8ad1910ed0bf1cd663aea05117f592

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.4% hashed
    1,370 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.6% closed
    1,368 settled picks · 65.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public2 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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