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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED eb15382c

Trevor Story Over 0.5 Hits

Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox

-176risk0.22u→win0.13uPENDINGESPN box score →
first pitch in04:34:22
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-176

Closing

pending

CLV

-

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 95.7% over last 15 games vs 63.8% implied → +31.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +31.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #20 vs this prop (-4.6% vs league avg over 284 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Fenway Park: 15 mph wind blowing IN (NE): ball suppressed, fade HR overs.
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
25
Settled
24
Hit rate
65.2%
15-8
ROI
+3.57%
+0.12u
CLV avg
+0.38%
n=22
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (24 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

Audit trail

Pick ID#12759
UUID1e187fbb-c904-4918-96c0-323631440138
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-23 15:13 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasheb15382c6d81eb1a22582472314e290bf3a079f369e92b65abda48e72f781b61

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger80.8% hashed
    1,309 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.9% closed
    1,288 settled picks · 63.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public21 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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