Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-05🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 6d133d88

Ezequiel Duran Over 0.5 Hits

Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers

-170risk0.12u→win0.07u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-170

Closing

-159

CLV

-2.50%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 81.2% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +18.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: cf0e86)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Tampa Bay Rays6
Texas Rangers3
Winner: Tampa Bay Rays · 2026-09-05
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-159
1.6289
Delta
-2.50%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#7643
UUID99bfbcf3-c146-4148-8871-3ff2daf7f78c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-05 20:05 UTC
Graded2026-09-06 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash6d133d88438ec1c591fc5bda33601be1e657917e24ccef35f1349551450cc455
Closing line-159 captured 2026-09-05 21:38 UTC
CLV delta-2.50%
Closing hash3257ed43b5ea492697d158a3ba6e568aa96df34275f18f52fa196b4e928837f9

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.7% closed
    1,118 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public18 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801