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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-28🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 916d771f

Sabrina Ionescu Under 5.5 Assists

New York Liberty @ Los Angeles Sparks

-170risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-170

Closing

-170

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +9.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +9.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #6 vs this prop (+6.4% vs league avg over 67 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-170-1700.00 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1589
UUIDed5b3816-25a7-4962-b9af-6e7a8e2f92d4
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-28 20:44 UTC
Graded2026-07-29 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash916d771fc6c9e6887fce1b67739e257209ac7e62aba585ddf057520609e68b17
Closing line-170 captured 2026-07-29 00:35 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash4e6d193c4b2d7bcd61ed1938bc6c00fe84d11be4d087b5f5025ae7c71be865f5

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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