Veronica Burton Over 12.5 Points
Golden State Valkyries @ Seattle Storm
Edge
Empirical 69.2% over last 13 games vs 62.3% implied → +6.0pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 13 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +6.0pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #3 vs this prop (+6.2% vs league avg over 96 games)
- 69.2% over last 13 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1134
UUID22696e40-ec56-47ae-a5e8-c83a67d34bc0
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-12 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-13 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash3c7c07a79f579c1647cb0cba251a35d1906f3714317e0a7c94dd9c5ee37b5e2a
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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