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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-28🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 1dc486ad

Natasha Howard Over 5.5 Rebounds

TOR Tempo @ Minnesota Lynx

-209risk0.15u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.15u

Odds

-209

Closing

-194

CLV

-2.44%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 67.6% implied → +19.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +19.0pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #15 vs this prop (-4.6% vs league avg over 67 games)
  • 86.7% over last 15 games

Line movement

-209-194+0.04 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-209
1.4785
Closing
-194
1.5155
Delta
-2.44%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1591
UUID2e95e3b8-cda7-477c-a5e4-25714e9cbc09
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-28 20:44 UTC
Graded2026-07-29 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1dc486addee3c0a5f7409968a19ae2da7eb1258b8db3cbb487b5c80f938f5dde
Closing line-194 captured 2026-07-28 22:35 UTC
CLV delta-2.44%
Closing hashd3b2f330fbd3583c9af60b21b3b5882449b4e236f34789ada58a46261aac35ce

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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