Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-17🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 061e2a9f

Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 Total Bases

Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners

-170risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-170

Closing

-175

CLV

+1.07%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 70.4% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +7.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics) (ref: 3b49ea)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

Final · Grading detail
Baltimore Orioles5
Seattle Mariners3
Winner: Baltimore Orioles · 2026-06-17
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-175
1.5714
Delta
+1.07%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1207
UUID329a07e8-750c-4de7-8fe8-21c65be3e497
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-17 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-06-18 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash061e2a9fd2bf28bb0ce016cb95dd4d2f7f65a24e88ff1d4daeecbacf58e3c8cc
Closing line-175 captured 2026-06-18 00:11 UTC
CLV delta+1.07%
Closing hashcc982e7409fbb89e718bdf003e9dd21a6048c9f5ae36727f05b2bea30d74e019

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801