Reid Detmers Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Edge
Empirical 83.3% over last 12 games vs 62.3% implied → +16.9pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm) (ref: a9f54c)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 12 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Final · Grading detail
Los Angeles Angels7
Arizona Diamondbacks0
Winner: Los Angeles Angels · 2026-06-16
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-168
1.5952
Delta
+0.68%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1194
UUID335138a6-f643-4d78-ace4-1133aa61cde3
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-16 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-17 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashab714d829c325ab205b3ecb6612577cbcb725bbf8ba5d7c425ba2894ba5c3aef
Closing line-168 captured 2026-06-17 01:57 UTC
CLV delta+0.68%
Closing hash2cdd83b9dba1acb612119e5c829bc88fd5284a4ecb885514a54384fe656b3313
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Why this receipt is trustable
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