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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-16🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED ab714d82

Reid Detmers Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks

-165risk0.11u→win0.07u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-165

Closing

-168

CLV

+0.68%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 83.3% over last 12 games vs 62.3% implied → +16.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm) (ref: a9f54c)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 12 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Los Angeles Angels7
Arizona Diamondbacks0
Winner: Los Angeles Angels · 2026-06-16
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-168
1.5952
Delta
+0.68%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1194
UUID335138a6-f643-4d78-ace4-1133aa61cde3
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-16 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-17 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashab714d829c325ab205b3ecb6612577cbcb725bbf8ba5d7c425ba2894ba5c3aef
Closing line-168 captured 2026-06-17 01:57 UTC
CLV delta+0.68%
Closing hash2cdd83b9dba1acb612119e5c829bc88fd5284a4ecb885514a54384fe656b3313

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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