Troy Johnston Under 1.5 Total Bases
Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies
Edge
Empirical 99.9% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +34.9pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
Kansas City Royals6
Colorado Rockies12
Winner: Colorado Rockies · 2026-08-01
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-park-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1698
UUID35240b51-eac5-4f8a-982b-c9028262d4dd
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-01 15:14 UTC
Graded2026-08-03 00:17 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash65afddd6c5f1a53d39641c8cbfd423ee3a5dc55a2278847a67a68ab2171cd7db
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public14 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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