Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 Runs Scored
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
first pitch in01:58:00
Edge
Empirical 95.2% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +21.2pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +21.2pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #23 vs this prop (-7.2% vs league avg over 303 games)
- 95.2% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-park-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
20
Settled
19
Hit rate
66.7%
10-5
ROI
-4.26%
-0.09u
CLV avg
-0.75%
n=15
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (19 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#3877
UUID0692b757-4018-4c45-93a7-c18326983f4d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-28 20:03 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha20f512cb91a92e9370f7968c8308ce80f2098209bb28522c8009f068c25b4f7
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger94.1% hashed1,011 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
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