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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-25🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 4fc48090

Dylan Crews Over 0.5 Total Bases

Washington Nationals @ Cleveland Guardians

-170risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-170

Closing

-160

CLV

-2.26%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 82.9% over last 6 games vs 63.0% implied → +8.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 6 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

Game context

Context signals

  • +8.0pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #11 vs this prop (+1.6% vs league avg over 292 games)
  • 82.9% over last 6 games

Line movement

-170-160+0.04 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-160
1.6250
Delta
-2.26%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1037
UUID3883564a-4c23-4b60-b1fc-c1f0862c9141
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-25 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-05-26 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash4fc480909503836582acaa10897f2ac063870dfad6fc4c74495c5e2be34c0605
Closing line-160 captured 2026-05-25 20:42 UTC
CLV delta-2.26%
Closing hash93816b4474b6172e2c0481dabf83a68bd06d2f190dea8c086670e7a0a6bb18e6

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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