Yandy Diaz Over 0.5 Total Bases
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
-245risk0.1u→win0.04u
LOSS
Edge
Empirical 80.8% over last 15 games vs 71.0% implied → +9.8pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +9.8pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #14 vs this prop (-0.1% vs league avg over 284 games)
- 80.8% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#683
UUID3efbf6c8-c365-440f-8d09-d191d39a061c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-11 20:35 UTC
Graded2026-05-12 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash68470fe19678bf79b3f369f9dd98937da39aca2b4fc9879f3982d527b713e5e7
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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