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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED cba98e8c

Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 Hits

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

-179risk0.17u→win0.09u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.17u

Odds

-179

Closing

-182

CLV

+0.59%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 88.4% over last 15 games vs 64.2% implied → +24.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Tampa Bay Rays6
New York Yankees1
Winner: Tampa Bay Rays · 2026-09-22
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
6
Settled
6
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
-5.75%
-0.04u
CLV avg
+0.22%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (6 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-179
1.5587
Closing
-182
1.5495
Delta
+0.59%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#12535
UUID406accab-7601-469b-995e-fb26db740237
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-22 20:38 UTC
Graded2026-09-23 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashcba98e8cc689a14ee082d9d0e7a5698bd53430a6c221db1762174ab3e02f62e8
Closing line-182 captured 2026-09-22 21:37 UTC
CLV delta+0.59%
Closing hash66ad7517a0da63d3dd65fbc5c53a0e46218a046dd988eedf10c9a6f82bcc8921

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.1% hashed
    1,376 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.8% closed
    1,374 settled picks · 65.8% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public2 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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