Erica Wheeler Over 4.5 Assists
Chicago Sky @ Los Angeles Sparks
Edge
Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 62.4% implied → +10.9pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=9 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +10.9pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #7 vs this prop (+0.4% vs league avg over 97 games)
- 73.3% over last 15 games
Line movement
-166-185-0.06 decModel Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (15)
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-166
1.6024
Closing
-185
1.5405
Delta
+4.02%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1343
UUID47638360-630f-4b89-9a3f-edaf73cb3b88
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-10 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-07-11 05:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe992776eef1579f1559e10dfea6fb437140ab384d1d5845ed664444905e83812
Closing line-185 captured 2026-07-11 00:42 UTC
CLV delta+4.02%
Closing hashcf404c0f51f71836fb0fd08371f930a0d3bc351426fccb2749a66773bc92cd9e
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public14 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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