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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 7c65e18b

Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Hits

Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners

-179risk0.13u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.13u

Odds

-179

Closing

-186

CLV

+1.37%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 83.2% over last 15 games vs 64.2% implied → +19.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: 2e0e35)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Chicago Cubs4
Seattle Mariners5
Winner: Seattle Mariners · 2026-08-22
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-179
1.5587
Closing
-186
1.5376
Delta
+1.37%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1822
UUID4c193c3d-256b-4d91-ad38-42517759f353
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-22 15:41 UTC
Graded2026-08-23 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash7c65e18b928d4ce5a5a72dd8fe6ce7067ecfd90171a2dce82b5a5109e6eb2045
Closing line-186 captured 2026-08-22 21:53 UTC
CLV delta+1.37%
Closing hash74d386656b744263520c4efa48fcc6ca7b41ab5ef3360409a64641e3ea7edbf3

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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