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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 7dcd4883

Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 Hits

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

-170risk0.13u→win0.08u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.13u

Odds

-170

Closing

-180

CLV

+2.10%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 81.6% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +18.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Tampa Bay Rays6
New York Yankees1
Winner: Tampa Bay Rays · 2026-09-22
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
6
Settled
6
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
-5.75%
-0.04u
CLV avg
+0.22%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (6 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-180
1.5556
Delta
+2.10%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#12450
UUID4dc07fb7-19b6-40b0-8ebf-74f4dba9d5ad
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-22 15:07 UTC
Graded2026-09-23 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash7dcd48837b7fe0efc8d8d294e68ac9bad73d7bf086decdcfa77e79cdeec58784
Closing line-180 captured 2026-09-22 21:37 UTC
CLV delta+2.10%
Closing hashf92d671336a39658b09b21655c10a165a6be2fb4b5dbca64e3dde8d8daece877

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.1% hashed
    1,376 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.8% closed
    1,374 settled picks · 65.8% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public2 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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