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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-18🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 1e9186b3

Breanna Stewart Over 6.5 Rebounds

New York Liberty @ Indiana Fever

-180risk0.11u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-180

Closing

-196

CLV

+3.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +15.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +15.7pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #1 vs this prop (+10.8% vs league avg over 104 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-180-196-0.05 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-196
1.5102
Delta
+3.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1430
UUID4de84a13-e792-42b9-b069-8dd70598933a
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-18 15:19 UTC
Graded2026-07-19 03:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1e9186b398c7e2a70b8aaadba8dcbe97cb19fab84e5f9896d4d3f2dd4ed82aa5
Closing line-196 captured 2026-07-18 22:51 UTC
CLV delta+3.00%
Closing hash43b43374aab2aabc5c704e81b955c83257532e23a198684f6b6a4e587dd6e249

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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