Dearica Hamby Over 11.5 Points
Golden State Valkyries @ Los Angeles Sparks
-180risk0.2u→win0.11u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +29.0pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +29.0pt EV vs implied
- 93.3% over last 15 games
- Bayesian-shrunk to 93.3%
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (15)
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1752
UUID5161330d-a779-4fe8-8641-e5c32c27f747
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-09 14:20 UTC
Graded2026-08-10 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1c942ff21191a8b492eda07959506b3856f184b37a6373aa3e70bbd93901d495
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public14 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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