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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-31🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 6a5cc500

Vaughn Grissom Over 0.5 Hits

Milwaukee Brewers @ LA Angels

-201risk0.14u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.14u

Odds

-201

Closing

-170

CLV

-5.71%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 84.9% over last 15 games vs 66.8% implied → +18.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Milwaukee Brewers6
Los Angeles Angels2
Winner: Milwaukee Brewers · 2026-07-31
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-201
1.4975
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
-5.71%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1685
UUID55f72436-4399-4bd5-b1d0-e24897fbfe99
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-31 20:15 UTC
Graded2026-08-01 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash6a5cc5001b7df732c57b44a666e263a6ab9890b14270292ed91bd52a8628e9f4
Closing line-170 captured 2026-08-01 00:14 UTC
CLV delta-5.71%
Closing hashbca04eae7a849e847163442224d4632563e1d5b98a6ff247567c4275fbc5c316

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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