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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-11🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED d96c73f0

Jhonny Pereda Over 0.5 Hits

Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles

-164risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-164

Closing

-164

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 73.0% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +10.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Seattle Mariners5
Baltimore Orioles7
Winner: Baltimore Orioles · 2026-06-11
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-164
1.6098
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1129
UUID5830848f-9335-4174-9f34-c8508d91d61f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-11 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-12 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashd96c73f0180ab2f0f92ddf240330fe169e9c7c72e7975f514b501e2ce1f88e7a
Closing line-164 captured 2026-06-11 21:37 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash3f55f71b5deddf0a5a6a0c51ee243a6924c2a30569971112d03cf96177994141

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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