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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 3f3533e8

Logan Henderson Over 14.5 Outs Recorded

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies

-165risk0.22u→win0.13u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-165

Closing

-160

CLV

-1.17%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.9% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +36.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Milwaukee Brewers4
Philadelphia Phillies1
Winner: Milwaukee Brewers · 2026-09-23
Model Record (30d)
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
66.7%
2-1
ROI
+6.48%
+0.04u
CLV avg
+1.45%
n=2
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-160
1.6250
Delta
-1.17%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#12761
UUID5991fc7f-ff72-44b2-8c8a-86f0003d5990
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-23 15:13 UTC
Graded2026-09-24 04:49 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash3f3533e88497788d94a250b8133d1639d8dea3d315ae2d0d8b77363d08432b9d
Closing line-160 captured 2026-09-23 21:22 UTC
CLV delta-1.17%
Closing hash7d9648a0be8341cfbc61b40e84bf9bd0ed5cdcee617ba9b6e258312a47af9837

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.2% hashed
    1,374 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.7% closed
    1,373 settled picks · 65.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public1 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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