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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 7c3ee1f2

Natasha Mack Over 7.5 Points

Phoenix Mercury @ Indiana Fever

-175risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-175

Closing

-105

CLV

-19.51%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +9.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +9.7pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #4 vs this prop (+3.4% vs league avg over 102 games)
  • 73.3% over last 15 games

Line movement

-175-105+0.38 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-105
1.9524
Delta
-19.51%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1285
UUID5f45f0df-bf82-4823-951a-249eee4a03c7
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-22 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-23 03:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash7c3ee1f28314e7c244b83f185a3fb29bbc7ddee50a9d7000cdf23a3e44e4d248
Closing line-105 captured 2026-06-23 00:14 UTC
CLV delta-19.51%
Closing hashd26a27d35e08a56f6a111601a581fbbc65d68d27837ee8cea0976992051b9e19

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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