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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-09💎Elite◆◆◆◆◆Nuro Edge 10.0LOCKED aa90b933

Ildemaro Vargas Over 0.5 Total Bases

New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks

-250risk0.13u→win0.05u
WIN

Stake

0.13u

Odds

-250

Closing

pending

CLV

-

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 71.4% implied → +15.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

Game context

Context signals

  • +15.2pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #5 vs this prop (+11.0% vs league avg over 251 games)
  • Opposing starter Merrill Kelly blowing up: 9.2 ERA over last 3 starts at 4.9 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

Audit trail

Pick ID#635
UUIDf4d40744-fe44-4601-983d-7a7b7174d331
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-09 22:49 UTC
Graded2026-05-10 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashaa90b933ac1d045279c1e22b86e45225df27cc49116561dedb3c5b0416f13c8a

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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