Ildemaro Vargas Over 0.5 Total Bases
New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks
-250PENDING
Edge
Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 71.4% implied → +15.2pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Audit trail
Pick ID#635
UUIDf4d40744-fe44-4601-983d-7a7b7174d331
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-09 22:49 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashaa90b933ac1d045279c1e22b86e45225df27cc49116561dedb3c5b0416f13c8a
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