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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 0d1b9bef

Marcus Semien Over 0.5 Hits

New York Mets @ Texas Rangers

-164risk0.13u→win0.08uPENDINGESPN box score →
first pitch in01:07:29
Bet onRVRS

Stake

0.13u

Odds

-164

Closing

-160

CLV

-0.94%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 81.2% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +19.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +19.1pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #13 vs this prop (-0.4% vs league avg over 287 games)
  • Opposing starter MacKenzie Gore blowing up: 6.1 ERA over last 3 starts at 4.9 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.

Line movement

-164-160+0.02 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
24
Settled
19
Hit rate
72.2%
13-5
ROI
+14.21%
+0.37u
CLV avg
+0.26%
n=17
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (19 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-160
1.6250
Delta
-0.94%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#12534
UUID0d5bbadb-d9cd-4b97-910a-b2736e020c12
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-22 20:38 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash0d1b9bef8950c7e84288adac08991fdf4bbab5fb26d3d4b59c086520d332edd4
Closing line-160 captured 2026-09-22 22:37 UTC
CLV delta-0.94%
Closing hash439e15e79a4d36869567c95fed5ba822b42e8e0171c07cc3d5374f3d6f8a7094

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger81.1% hashed
    1,296 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.1% closed
    1,263 settled picks · 63.1% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public33 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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