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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-01🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED a948c81d

Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 Hits

CHI White Sox @ Houston Astros

-178risk0.15u→win0.08u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.15u

Odds

-178

Closing

-178

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.2% over last 15 games vs 64.0% implied → +22.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 2759c6)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Chicago White Sox5
Houston Astros1
Winner: Chicago White Sox · 2026-09-01
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-178
1.5618
Closing
-178
1.5618
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#6405
UUID9d8afb51-9ed8-4ddc-a528-3e6c65ede309
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-01 20:42 UTC
Graded2026-09-02 03:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha948c81d7ced30fa5b4eb06b026bd694df65ccdde44f019f8d07103864c05891
Closing line-178 captured 2026-09-01 22:53 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash00ccbcb7a97b04cec458e3d483753a6d51fbce7ac0b463e8ab775182e5771097

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.7% closed
    1,118 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public18 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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