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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-01🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED a05d57e1

Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Hits

NY Yankees @ CHI Cubs

-168risk0.17u→win0.1u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.17u

Odds

-168

Closing

-173

CLV

+1.09%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 88.0% over last 15 games vs 62.7% implied → +25.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
New York Yankees2
Chicago Cubs5
Winner: Chicago Cubs · 2026-08-01
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-168
1.5952
Closing
-173
1.5780
Delta
+1.09%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1707
UUID647429b8-8e9a-4760-aa1f-5fa534827a0f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-01 20:43 UTC
Graded2026-08-02 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha05d57e1d5a65653bb5ca788964d32ce42b057bc39944424087ba53b64a876b9
Closing line-173 captured 2026-08-01 21:52 UTC
CLV delta+1.09%
Closing hash442960049a90510653965741c4a2218894c8acf2ad62eb9198fd2856febc1ce5

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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